- EUR/GBP extends gains for a second day, climbing to six-week highs.
- The British Pound is under pressure despite stronger UK Retail Sales data.
- UK stagflation concerns grow with high inflation, weak growth and a softening jobs market
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against the British Pound (GBP) for the second day, with EUR/GBP surging to its highest level since August 7 despite stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data.
At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8713, easing slightly from an intraday high of 0.8728, as Sterling remains under pressure from the Bank of England’s (BoE) cautious monetary policy stance following this week’s decision to hold rates.
UK Retail Sales for August surprised to the upside across the board. Retail Sales rose 0.5% MoM, slightly above the 0.4% forecast and matching the prior month’s revised 0.5% (from 0.6%). Core Retail Sales (excluding fuel) jumped 0.8% MoM, well above the 0.3% expected and double July’s revised 0.4% (from 0.5%).
On an annual basis, headline sales increased 0.7% YoY, beating the 0.6% consensus but easing from a revised 0.8% in July (from 1.1%). Core sales rose 1.2% YoY, above the 0.8% forecast, and slightly above July’s revised 1.0% (from 1.3%).
The data highlight that households are still spending despite elevated borrowing costs and sticky inflation, underscoring a degree of resilience in the demand side of the economy. While the upward surprise is encouraging, it’s worth noting that July’s figures were revised lower, suggesting earlier estimates overstated the strength of the consumer.
The release, however, did little to change the broader macroeconomic outlook, with stagflation risks still hanging over the UK economy. Inflation remains elevated at 3.8% YoY, nearly double the BoE’s 2% target, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to just 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter. At the same time, the labour market is beginning to soften, with unemployment edging toward 4.7% and payrolled jobs declining.
With growth slowing, inflation elevated and the labour market softening, the BoE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate at 4.00% on Thursday and announced a slowdown in its quantitative tightening programme.
Adding to Sterling’s woes, the latest fiscal data stoked fresh concerns about the UK’s public finances. UK 10-year gilt yields climbed to 4.7%, a two-week high, after net borrowing surged to £18 billion in August, sharply above the £12.8 billion forecast and the highest for the month in five years.
(This story was corrected on September 19 at 14:01 GMT to say that the UK Core Retail Sales YoY reading in August was above July’s figure, not softer.)
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