EUR/USD seems quite comfortable near the 1.1600 level. In theory, it has had enough consolidation should it want to move higher again, though there does not seem to be a catalyst for that this week, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR to consolidate inside last week’s 1.1550-1.1720 range
“The focus in Europe will be on Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. We doubt ECB President Christine Lagarde will shake things up too much ahead of the central bank’s summer break, although there may be some continued concerns over recent euro strength and particularly the direction of tariffs. The mood music on EU tariffs seems poor at the moment, and the kink in the EUR/USD FX options implied volatility curve in the two-week tenor suggests investors are again wary of the new 1 August tariff deadline.”
“In addition to the ECB this week, we have the flash July PMIs for the region, also on Thursday. These are hovering around the 50 area, but economists will be keen to look at the inventory data for any signs that stocks have been worn down and might require a refill. Equally, Friday’s German Ifo release should show continued optimism in the expectations component on the back of infrastructure investment prospects – albeit in 2026.”
“EUR/USD has found support under 1.16. There is not a strong case for it to go much lower this week, and consolidation inside last week’s 1.1550-1.1720 is our call.”
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