Despite muted ETF flows and flat Western macro participation, positioning data shows Chinese Gold speculators pushing SHFE Gold to record highs, setting the stage for a potentially range-bound market — with several bullish catalysts looming, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
China speculators buy, western funds wait
“Our tracking of positioning for the largest traders in SHFE Gold highlights this cohort has accumulated a new all-time-high position size. Interestingly, Chinese Gold ETF flows remain muted, but signs of selling exhaustion continue to permeate from this cohort.”
“Western macro funds remain flat in aggregate. CTAs are now ‘max long’ but not vulnerable to sell. While Western Gold traders continue to await the next buying impulse, Chinese Gold speculators are increasing Gold holdings nonetheless. These are typically the makings of a broadly range-bound market, but several catalysts for the next buying impulse remain on the horizon.”
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