G10 currencies are mixed as we head into Thursday’s NA session, with no clear unifying theme as markets respond to a heavy overnight schedule of data and central bank risk events, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
USD mixed vs. G10 following Wednesday’s Fed-driven rally
“Their divergent individual performances are welcome following the uniform movement that we observed in response to Wednesday’s Fed, as Fed Chair Powell conveyed a decidedly neutral hold offering very little to a short-term rates market that had gone into the meeting pricing about 16bpts of easing for September and just shy of 50bpts by December. Markets are now down to pricing only 10bpts of easing for the next meeting (September) and only 35bpts by year end.”
“The USD response has swift, broad, and brutal, sending the DXY to its highest level since late May. G10 performance from Wednesday’s close reveals some modest outperformance for the SEK, EUR, and AUD, limited movement in MXN and GBP, and underperformance for the CAD and JPY. The broader market tone is one of risk appetite, as US equity futures push to fresh record highs on the back of better than expected tech earnings while the US 10Y yield trades in a tight range around 4.35%. Crude is trading somewhat defensively from its recent high, fading from a local peak just above $70/bbl.”
“Meanwhile, copper has cratered in response to President Trump’s exemption of refined metals from the 50% tariff on copper imports. Finally, gold has once again found support in the mid-$3200s around the lower end of its flat range from mid-April, staving off a bearish break as market participants eyed a possible extension of the recent decline that we’ve observed over the past week or so. The passing of the Fed will allow markets to shift their focus back to the data, specifically the 8:30am ET release of PCE inflation as well as jobless claims, ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. There are no scheduled Fed speakers.”
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