- The Australian Dollar holds gains after the release of stronger Trade Balance data on Thursday.
- Australia’s Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion.
- President Trump expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement with China.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following the release of Trade Balance data from Australia. Traders are likely awaiting the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US), scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, significantly surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion (down from AUD 2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports and a 2.2% decline in imports for the month.
On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.
The US Dollar gains support as US President Donald Trump, during a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement with China, stating there is a “very good probability we’ll reach a deal.” Trump emphasized that any agreement with China must meet US conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and noted that a deal with Ukraine was finalized earlier in the day.
Australian Dollar maintains position despite an improved US Dollar
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the third successive day and trading around the 99.70 level at the time of writing. The US Dollar strengthens as traders scale back expectations for a 1% interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, following data indicating a contraction in the US economy last quarter.
- US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% annualized in the first quarter of 2025, missing the forecast for 0.4% growth and sharply down from the 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index—a key inflation gauge—rose 2.6% year-on-year in March, in line with expectations but slower than February’s 2.8% increase.
- On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) openings dropped to 7.19 million in March, down from a revised 7.48 million in February and below the market forecast of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting softening labor demand amid growing economic uncertainty in the United States (US).
- US President Donald Trump signaled openness to reducing Chinese tariffs, while Beijing exempted certain US goods from its 125% levies. This move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies might be drawing to a close.
- Australia’s Monthly CPI held steady with a 2.4% year-over-year increase in March. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year in Q1, in line with expectations, while the quarterly figure also met forecasts at 0.7%.
- Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”
- In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling short of the 49.9 consensus and indicating a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also softened, easing to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that making concessions and retreating would only embolden the bully, emphasizing that dialogue is key to resolving differences.
Australian Dollar remains above 0.6400; finds support near nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6410 on Thursday, with the daily chart maintaining a bullish tone. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays comfortably above the 50 mark—both indicating continued upward momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the recent four-month high of 0.6449, hit on April 29. A clear break above this level could open the door toward the five-month high of 0.6515.
To the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA at 0.6388, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6317. A break below these levels would undermine the bullish bias and could expose the pair to further downside, potentially targeting the March 2020 low near 0.5914.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | -0.01% | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.31% | -0.27% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.29% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.30% | -0.37% | -0.39% | -0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.30% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.31% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.21% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.23% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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